Athletics / Bob Adams / 29 August 2011 /

Ahead of day four, Bob Adams thinks he's found an unlikely podium finisher in the men's 400m and the woman who can beat the great Yelena Isinbayeva in the pole vault event.

One of the most difficult distances to run is the 800m as it is neither an all-out sprint, nor an even-paced long distance event. The two-lapper is laughingly ranked alongside the 1500m as 'middle-distance', but in reality it is a gut-wrenching, lactic-building elongated semi-sprint that certainly sorts the men out from the boys. To maintain top pace over two laps requires that rare mixture of fast and slow twitch muscles plus a wealth of anaerobic and aerobic ability. Training can help resist the build-up of lactic acid, but ultimately its sheer guts and determination that wins this most arduous event.

One athlete who has all those attributes in spades is the Kenyan David Rudisha [1.18], an extraordinary athlete who has a 45.50 personal best over 400m, a mark that would qualify him for the one lap event at these championships Rudisha's speciality though is the two-lapper and the world record holder also boasts four of the ten fastest times ever recorded. He was deservedly voted the IAAF World Athlete of the World in 2010 and is a more than warm favourite to take the world title today. As such he's unbackable at very skinny odds. However the top three market certainly has some temptation and I'm keen to have some interest in one of Rudisha's younger opponents.

Sudan's Abubaker Kaki [1.53] is the second fastest athlete in the 800m, but like Rudisha in the win market, the 21-year-olds' odds are too skinny to merit any serious interest for a podium finish. Leaving aside the brilliant Rudisha, all the other finalists have logged times within a second of each other this year, a fact which must leave punters scratching their heads and wondering where to lodge their bets. The athlete I believe is improving faster than most of his opponents and unlike some of his rivals, has time on his side is Adam Kszczot [3.5] of Poland. A clear second in his semi-final, Kszscot clocked a time of 1.44.30 easing down, so there is definitely more to come and I'm backing the young Pole to collect his first major championship medal behind the flying Kenyan.

Impressive though pole vault world record holder Yelena Isinbayeva ([1.75]) has been throughout her long career (with two World and two Olympic titles among the many championships she has won), she could face a tough task today to add a third world title to her impressive tally. Isinbayeva is on the way back from a self-imposed sabbatical after faltering in Berlin in 2009 where she failed to achieve a successful vault. The 29-year old Russian has cleared 4.76m this season, but that mark puts her some way behind US vaulter Jenn Suhr [5.1].

Undoubtedly Isinbayeva is a woman who thrives at the main events and she will be no doubt be boosted by the knowledge that her world record clearance of 5.06 puts her a street in front of this field - her current odds obviously reflect that superiority. However, Suhr is the form pick on IAAF rankings in 2011 with a clearance of 4.91 only last month and her current odds make her a much more attractive proposition than the world record holder. Suhr has also been on an upward curve all year and can reverse Beijing Olympics placings with Isinbayeva.

Recommended Bets:

Back Adam Kszczot for a podium finish in the men's 800m @ [3.5]
Back Jenn Suhr to win the women's pole vault @ [5.1]

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