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World Athletics Championships Day Seven: Beware or Believe?

Athletics RSS / / 01 September 2011 /

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You have to hand it to Bolt, but Alonso Edward (left) can make the podium again

You have to hand it to Bolt, but Alonso Edward (left) can make the podium again

"Whatever the rights and wrongs of Bolt’s disqualification in the 100m, he should be able to gain recompense in the 200m."

Athletics championships pose punters a problem. With a plethora of short-priced favourites, it's always hard to separate the genuine sporting titan from the overhyped chancer. During the nine days of World Championship action in Daegu, Jack Houghton tells us which skinny ones to believe in, and which to beware of.

Men's 200m - Usain Bolt - BELIEVE
Despite having put Bolt up as a Beware on day one of these championships, I took no pleasure from seeing his disqualification from the final, especially as my own pick, [36.0] shot Nesta Carter, was injured in the same race and finished last. Whatever the rights and wrongs of Bolt's disqualification in the 100m though, he should be able to gain recompense in the 200m. As in the 100m, he has, by his own standards, been lacklustre in the 200m this season, but has still recorded the fastest time of the year so far. This, coupled with the lack of credible opposition - only one other athlete has run sub-20 seconds this year - means Bolt should find his task much easier over the longer sprint distance. There is little value in his odds of [1.11] though. Better bets can be found in the Top 3 market, where rising star Nickel Ashmeade, and returning-from-injury Alonso Edward, can fill the podium with Bolt.

Women's Hammer - Betty Heidler - Beware
Purely on price, it's worth opposing the 2007 world champion Betty Heidler as she bids to regain her title. Although she has dominated competition this season, throwing the four best efforts of the year, including a world record 79.42, she remains vulnerable in major championships, where she has not always produced her best. A number of past champions (think Miankova, Moreno and Wlodarczyk) are coming back from breaks, and both Wenxiu and Lysenko are capable of pushing Heidler close on the day. Not an event to get heavily involved in, but Heidler is definitely worth opposing.

Recommendations:
2pts back Alonso Edwards at [2.50] in men's 200m in the Top 3 market.
1pt back Nickel Ashmeade at [3.50] in men's 200m in the Top 3 market.
2pts lay Betty Heidler at [1.36] in women's hammer.

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