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World Athletics Championships Day Nine: Beware or Believe?

Athletics RSS / / 03 September 2011 /

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An imperious Semenya should make them pay in the final

An imperious Semenya should make them pay in the final

"I can’t help thinking that Semenya has been holding something back, perhaps as a way to limit the attention she receives. If she really is that disillusioned with the sport, why would she be running here at all?"

Athletics championships pose punters a problem. With a plethora of short-priced favourites, it's always hard to separate the genuine sporting titan from the overhyped chancer. During the nine days of World Championship action in Daegu, Jack Houghton tells us which skinny ones to believe in, and which to beware of.

Women's 800m - Caster Semenya - Believe
It's incredibly dangerous to mix emotion with punting, but when it comes to Semenya, who continues to be the subject of a modern, and far crueller, version of the circus sideshow, it's hard to remain phlegmatic. Rumours abound that Semenya has lost all appetite for life as a professional athlete and her performances this year - which have been headscratchingly ordinary - certainly provide some evidence of that. And if she has, who could blame her? But I can't help thinking that Semenya has been holding something back, perhaps as a way to limit the attention she receives. If she really is that disillusioned with the sport, why would she be running here at all? If reports are to be believed, a number of Semenya's fellow athletes have been incredibly cruel to her - especially the Russians, who provide the strongest opposition coming in to this final - and there's just something about the whole situation which makes me think Semenya is intent on making them pay. She breezed through her semi-final, showing form we haven't seen since her win in Berlin in 2009, and I expect her to run a 1.55 in destroying this bunch.

Men's 5,000m - Bernard Lagat - Beware
It's hard to understand why Lagat is favourite for this. Farah beat him in Monaco to set a world-leading time and there's little reason to believe that Lagat will be able to overturn that defeat here. The talk going into Monaco was that, if Lagat could stay with Farah into the last lap, the American's superior finish would be decisive. Well he did stay with Farah, but the superior finish never materialised. At the age of 37, I struggle to see Lagat having one last hurrah in Daegu. As for Farah, his inexperience of being in contention in major finals cost him the 10,000m crown. He accelerated too quickly when trying to win the race from 600m out, eventually succumbing to his more evenly-paced rival and, unforgivably, he was obsessed with watching the screen and looking around him - a genuine school-boy error. I expect Farah's race-winning move to be far more controlled in the 5,000m and am surprised he is available at such a juicy price.

Recommendations:
5pts back Caster Semenya at [1.55] in women's 800m.
5pts back Mo Farah at [2.70] in men's 5,000m.

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