World Athletics Championships Day Four: Beware or Believe?

Athletics / Jack Houghton / 29 August 2011 /

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We believe you LaShawn, you don't have to show us

"I half expect James to break the 44-second barrier in the final, which would be more than fast enough to beat a field that, despite Merritt’s length and width, lacks strength in depth."

Athletics championships pose punters a problem. With a plethora of short-priced favourites, it's always hard to separate the genuine sporting titan from the overhyped chancer. During the nine days of World Championship action in Daegu, Jack Houghton tells us which skinny ones to believe in, and which to beware of.

LaShawn Merritt - Men's 400m - BEWARE
The men's 400m is the finale on day four, and many will be hoping that Merritt ([1.55]), returning from a drug's ban, is unsuccessful - especially as his initial two year suspension was handily shortened to 21 months, allowing him to compete in these games. On the other side there are those who feel Merritt deserved the leniency - having, according to the athlete, mistakenly ingested a banned steroid that he did not know was present in a penis enlargement product. Whatever the rights and wrongs of his case though, there are two clear punting reasons to oppose the American. First, away from competition for so long, it's a big ask to run three rounds of a major championship in quick succession. Second, the Grenadian athlete Kirani James, despite being only 18, looks like he might be something incredibly special. I half expect him to break the 44-second barrier in the final, which would be more than fast enough to beat a field that, despite Merritt's length and width, lacks strength in depth.

Milcah Chemos - Women's 3,000m Steeplechase - BELIEVE
Accidents aside, this should be a cakewalk for the Kenyan, who remained unbeaten this year when qualifying for the final here with ease. She won bronze at the World Championships in Berlin in 2009, despite having only being running competitively for a year, and having only six months' steeplechasing experience. When she won the Rome grand prix in May in a world leading time, most of this field were behind her, and it's very difficult to see how any of them can reverse placings here. One of my bankers of the meeting.

Recommendations:
5pts back Kirani James at [3.60] in men's 400m.
5pts back Milcah Chemos at [1.79] in women's 3,000m steeplechase.

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