Athletics / Jack Houghton / 30 August 2011 /

Athletics championships pose punters a problem. With a plethora of short-priced favourites, it's always hard to separate the genuine sporting titan from the overhyped chancer. During the nine days of World Championship action in Daegu, Jack Houghton tells us which skinny ones to believe in, and which to beware of.

Day five is a virtual day off for the World Championships, with only the women competing in the 20km walk, so I'll be previewing Thursday's action in two parts, starting today...

Women's 400m Hurdles - Lashinda Demus - BEWARE
Coming in to these championships, Kaliese Spencer was a ridiculously short price to take gold (having traded as low as [1.66]); however, struggling with leg and groin injuries and having only qualified for the final as a fastest loser, Lashinda Demus has now been catapulted to favouritism, at an even more ridiculous price of [1.49]. Although Kaliese Spencer ran a blistering 52.79 at the London Grand Prix, it was always likely that a time of around 53.5 would be enough to take this title, and nearly all of the finalists are capable of running that fast on their day. So why the market has chosen to replace one ludicrously underpriced competitor with another is beyond me, and the value call has to be to oppose Demus. Antyukh won her semi-final well, and is the one I would pick to cause an upset in this strangest of markets, especially after my recent success with her on a triple-word score in a crunch game of scrabble.

Men's 3,000m Steeplechase - Brimin Kiprop Kipruto - BEWARE
On paper Kipruto looks a sure thing. His 7.53 at the Monaco Grand Prix last month put him second on the all-time list for this event and he's the reigning Olympic champion. As we have seen throughout this week though, medals are not won by fast times on paper, they are won by tactically astute athletes on track. Kiprop's fast time on paper was achieved with the help, initially, of a paid pacemaker, and then from Kemboi, who seemed to sacrifice his own chances of winning the race in search of a fast time. And despite winning this event in Beijing, Kiprop has shown his fallibilities in major championships, coming seventh in Berlin in 2009 and, most surprisingly, managing only bronze at the Commonwealth Games last October. If we knew this final was going to be run at world-record pace, the [1.67] on Kipruto would look good value, but it won't be, making Kemboi and Mateelong strong contenders to cause an upset.

Recommendations:
5pts lay Lashinda Demus at [1.49] in women's 400m hurdles.
1pt back Natalya Antyukh at [6.80] in women's 400m hurdles.
3pts lay Brimin Kiprop Kipruto at [1.67] in men's 3,000 steeplechase.
1pt back Ezekiel Kemboi at [4.80] in men's 3,000 steeplechase.
1pt back Richard Kipkemboi Mateelong at [24.0] in men's 3,000 steeplechase.

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