Athletics / Robin Adams / 14 August 2009 / Leave a comment

There's a hot favourite in both the 200m and 10,000m. Bob Adams fills in the details.

"If Bolt were to miss the kick and allow Gay a lead, it could be all over as I rate the American a better bend runner than he is over the straight 100m. I’m aware that he’s not a ‘big occasion’ man, but a small stakes wager at [14.0] has to be taken.

Usain Bolt and Tyson Gay dominate the market for the 100m sprint and these fierce rivals also hold all the aces in the half lap sprint. Money has been traded on Gay in the one-on-one match-up at a ridiculous price at [14.0]. If Bolt were to miss the kick and allow Gay a lead, it could be all over as I rate the American a better bend runner than he is over the straight 100m. I'm aware that he's not a 'big occasion' man, but a small stakes wager at those odds has to be taken.

Gay is the fastest in the world this year but only a whisker ahead of Bolt with the American's team-mates Wallace Spearmon and Shawn Crawford the only other runners under the magic 20 second mark, and even Crawford's run in Oregon in June was wind assisted. The head-to-head between Spearmon and Crawford is a real poser. Spearmon has collected silver and bronze in successive World Championships and has to be fancied to medal again. At 31, Athens Olympics gold winner Crawford is in the veteran stage of his career. He is always dangerous in sprint finals and with the pair locked together on [1.6], I'm going to sit this one out. Crawford [3.4] shades Spearmon [3.7] in the podium finish and even when this market matures I can't see things changing drastically. Once again it's not a place I'm likely to play in, especially with speedsters like Alonso Edwards and Steve Mullings also likely to make the final.

Whereas the 200m gold medallist will earn his gong in around 20 secs, the 10,000m winner will need to run for over 26 minutes to earn his. That's 25 gruelling laps at one minute five seconds a lap pace. The favourite for this race is the current world and Olympic record holder Ethiopian Kenenisa Bekele at [1.24]. There are currently few punters willing to lay the 27-year-old, who became only the fourth athlete in history to claim both long distance crowns at last year's Beijing Olympics.

A stress fracture kept him off the track for four months at the end of last year, but as he displayed when clocking a fast time to beat a star-studded 5,000m field in Rome recently, he's right back to his best. The 10km is his preferred race in Berlin and he won't make a decision on the shorter race until after the big one.

The winner without Bekele market gives punters some interesting options with Bekele's compatriot Sileshi Sihine the current favourite at [2.42]. Also being supported is the 10km road race record holder Micah Kogo of Kenya at [2.62]. I respect both these runners but in seeking a value bet without the favourite, I feel that another Ethiopian Abebe Dinkesa [14.0] may be the 'forgotten man' when this market eventually kicks into gear. In his one attempt at the distance this year he clocked impressively and this is a young man with time on his side. Dinkesa is also showing up at [5.0] in the opening exchanges on the podium finish and I'm happy to back him in both markets.

Will Bekele's world record fall? Well anything is possible when this guy's in form, A fair evening in Berlin and a fast pace could put the record to the test, and at [9.6] in the fledgling market I'm happy to grab some value and make a small wager.

Tags: 10000m, 200m, Abebe Dinkesa, Kenenisa Bekele, Micah Kogo, Sileshi Sihine, Tyson Gay, Usain Bolt, World Championship Athletics