London Marathon Betting: Tipping the hat-trick and running for charity

Athletics / Jack Houghton / 24 April 2010 / 2 Comments

Sammy Wanjiru represents value to win his second London title

"Available at around [2.7], Wanjiru represents value to win his second London title. In my book, he should be slightly odds-on."

Having tipped the winners of the men's and women's races two years straight -- at [4.0], [3.25], [4.5] and [17.0] -- the pressure's on for Jack Houghton to achieve the hat-trick this time around. Our man is also running in the race so please check out his JustGiving page here.

The men's race - BBC 0945 BST

The men's race -- despite the absence of three-time winner Martin Lel -- still looks certain to be the strongest marathon field of the year, as it has been for the last four. Only Gebrselassie has frustrated organisers; the current marathon world-record holder consistently choosing Berlin in continuing attempts to lower his best time.

There's talk of The Geb choosing London next year -- in preparation for an Olympic tilt in 2012 -- but for now we'll have to settle for the current Olympic Champion and last year's London winner, Sammy Wanjiru. Since finishing second to Lel in 2008, Wanjiru has remained unbeaten over the marathon distance and, whilst he hasn't yet threatened the world-record mark, at only 23, it's realistic to think he will one day get close to breaking the magical two-hour barrier. Available at around [2.7], Wanjiru represents value to win his second London title. In my book, he should be slightly odds-on.

Duncan Kibet is heralded as a danger to Wanjiru's continued dominance. However, despite running a spectacular 2.04.27 in Rotterdam in 2009, he has subsequently failed to repeat that form, most notably when hammered by The Geb in a head-to-head showdown in Berlin. Kibet might get it right again one day, but I'm happy to lay him for a place at around [2.20], expecting that it won't be in London this year.

Both Tadese and Kebede could spring a minor surprise on Sunday. Tadese [5.0], having claimed the half-marathon world-record in Lisbon in 2009, was touted by many (including me, writing here last year) as a potential outsider for the 2009 London Marathon, before dropping out in the last 10km. However, his talent remains unquestioned. Kebede [8.0], more experienced, pushed Wanjiru all-the-way in last year's race, and is fully expected to run well again. I will be having small bets on each to cover my stake on Wanjiru.

The women's race - BBC 0900 BST

Irina Mikitenko is huge value at [3.0] to win her third-straight London Marathon. In my book, like Wanjiru, she should be an odds-on shot, but her price is being artificially lengthened by two key doubts: a supposed interrupted preparation due to snow chasing her around her training camps; and a loss to Shobukhova in Chicago last October.

First, snow. Whilst decamping to an indoor track for periods of winter training might not be the chosen preparation for elite marathoners, the fact remains that Mikitenko has done the mileage she planned, when she planned to do it. It might have been deathly boring, but that will have only served to make her stronger, not weaker.

Second, Chicago. Her run there was an after-thought, having pulled-out of the World Championships due to the death of her father. Grief hit Mikitenko hard and, in my eyes, her performances in the second-half of last year are best forgotten.

Unless Deena Kastor can recover some of her previous sparkle, I expect this to be a comfortable win for Miktenko.

The mass start - BBC 0945 BST

Whilst the pressure of the tipping hat-trick weighs me down mentally, some physical pressure is added this year in a different form -- I'm running the thing. A long time club runner over shorter distances who swore they would never go longer than a half-marathon, when I travelled up last year to watch my massive Wanjiru-Mikitenko double come in, the atmosphere grabbed me and, that same night, I was entered for 2010. Nearly two-thousand miles of training later and, in 24 hours' time, I hope to have heaved myself round, albeit slightly slower than the elites.

I'm running for the charity Kids. So, if you've taken my betting advice on the London Marathon over the last couple of years, profiting as a result, or you feel like donating some money to a worthy cause, please check out my JustGiving page here.

Comments (2)

1. Jack Houghton | 26 April 2010

   So Mikitenko couldn't repeat, but hopefully the profit from the men's race covered any loss there.

   If anyone's interested, I finished 6,854th, in 3:44.00. It was a little down on my 3:30.00 target, which looked possible until mile 15, when a "stomach problem" (okay, I had to take a crap, or "do a Paula" as I believe it is called) slowed things somewhat.

   The last six miles were hell, and despite chanting "never again" on every one of the 3,000 or so steps it took to cover those last few miles, I'm already looking favourably on another tilt next year.

   Anyway, many, many thanks to those who very generously sponored me - your money is going to a good cause.

   Jack

2. Runningman | 15 April 2011

   Any tips for this year Jack?