London Marathon betting: Radcliffe absence can open the door for Gete Wami

Athletics / Jack Houghton / 12 April 2008 / 1 Comments

Jack Houghton tells us why the absence of Paula Radcliffe is a big blow for the organisers but really opens up the betting in the women's race

As upbeat a spin as they will no doubt try to put on the situation, Paula Radcliffe's withdrawal from this year's London Marathon is a massive blow to organisers, with the women's field now reduced to a largely disappointing collection of has-beens and unknowns. Indeed, with the absence of America's Kara Goucher and any top-flight Chinese opposition, the race originally conceived to mark Radcliffe's progress on route to Beijing will now tell us little about likely summer medal winners.

Nonetheless, the race is now a more interesting betting proposition. Radcliffe would have been long odds-on to claim her fourth London title and, against this field, only misfortune would have stopped her.

The most-likely winner of the women's race is Ethiopia's Gete Wami. Running in her third London Marathon, she was second last year behind Chinese winner, Zhou Chunxiu. But her most impressive performances to date came last Autumn, where she followed up a September win in Berlin with a second-place finish behind Radcliffe in New York just five weeks later - a remarkable feat considering most top athletes aim for a six-month break between marathons. Although aggravating an old hamstring injury there, she's had a solid preparation for London, with a perfect warm-up third in the Zayed International Half-Marathon in early-March. At the time of writing, the markets on Betfair are still forming, but I will be looking to back Wami at [3.5 o]r bigger come Sunday morning.

There will be a lot of support for another Ethiopian, and likely joint-favourite, Berhane Adere. Twice winner in Chicago, and the only athlete on show to have run sub-2:21, she has an obvious chance. However, she has yet to perform in two attempts here and her preparation has looked overly arduous. Presumably lured by the US$250k first-prize, her win in Dubai at the end of January might have buoyed her bank balance, but does not represent a recommended preparation for a major marathon. I will be looking to lay her pre-race at around [3.8], and will continue to lay her during the race if her price shortens further. How much I lay, and for how long, will of course depend on what is happening around her, but I certainly expect her Dubai exertions to affect her performance in the final stages.

A trio of old-aged-pensioners, at least in athletic terms, make up the remaining top five seeds, and although they will no doubt be competitive for much of the race, it will be a surprise if Petrova, Tomescu-Dita and Zakharova are good enough to win it. The winner should run sub-2:22, a time out of reach of this bunch on recent form.

Kosgei is being tipped by many as a likely winner. However, although her second in Tokyo in November, and her two wins in warm-up half-marathons this year, testify she is in good form, she has now run in nine marathons without breaking 2:23. Trapped in her house for three weeks in January after an outbreak of tribal violence in her Kenyan community, it would be a great story if she won, but it's hard to see her improving sufficiently on her tenth attempt at the distance. At likely odds of [12.0], I won't be laying her, but she looks short at that price to me.

A couple of lesser-known runners I will have onside are Mikitenko (recommend at [17.0] or bigger) and Kimwei (recommend at [40.0] or bigger). Mikitenko is having only her second start in a marathon, having come second, three minutes behind Wami in Berlin last September. On that day her husband acted as her pacemaker and is reputed to have intentionally slowed her down to ensure she completed on her debut. She is adamant she would have finished closer if allowed to pursue Wami and completed a very fast half-marathon in Paderborn as a warm-up last month.

Kimwei is only 20 and is running her debut marathon on Sunday. Although Kenyan, she is based in Japan and, along with previous solid times on the track, ran three half-marathons in 2007 in sub-70 minutes. And don't let the debutante tag put you off. Plenty of analysis - particularly that by Tim Noakes - has shown that most runners post their best marathon times early in their careers, with many doing it first time over the distance.

Although both Mikitenko and Kimwei will likely lose a late-race run-off against a more experienced competitor, I can see them both trading at significantly shorter prices in-running and will look to trade out.

Anyone who thinks Britain will be competitive sans-Radcliffe is mental. Yelling may have finished 19 minutes ahead of me in her warm-up, the Reading Half-Marathon, but even that form is not good enough to make her competitive here. Pride will be on show as she competes with Haining to be the first Britain over the line, but a top ten finish would be the absolute best either could hope for.

An absolute certainty in the women's race is that the record will not be broken. The market has been formed using 2:15.25 as the benchmark; a time set by Radcliffe in 2003 using male pacemakers. London subsequently decided to stage the race under championship conditions - which does not allow for pacemakers - making Radcliffe's time almost impossible to trump. And anyhow, none of this year's competitors have yet run sub-2:20, so it will be a miracle if they get within four minutes of it. If you can find anyone stupid enough to lay you a bet on it not happening, take it. Whatever the price offered, it is value.

The women's race begins at 9.00am and will be shown live on the BBC.

Comments (1)

1. James | 14 April 2008

   Impressive previews Jack, thanks. I backed Mikitenko each-way at 14s with a fixed-odds bookmaker after reading this and did a little bit of trading on Wami having backed her pre-race on Betfair. Like you said, Adere wasn't up to it yesterday and once she dropped back, Wami was trading at long odds-on. Also managed a small win on the mens race, although had more on Limo than Lel. Top work, James