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London Marathon betting: Felix Limo can be the cat with the cream

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Jack Houghton loves a good marathon but he also loves a grat value bet. Here are the value bets from the men's field...

Whereas the women's race smacks somewhat of mediocrity - given the absence of Radcliffe - the men's race does anything but; showcasing, as it does, about the best field that could be realistically assembled given the fragilities of top-flight athletes and Gebrselassie's decision to run Dubai in January.

The race sees three of the fastest four runners over the distance from the 2007 line up. Add to that two of the most successful racers of the last few years in Lel and Limo, a host of other sub-2:10ers, and the absence of Geb can be easily forgiven.

However, the real story of the race is not this competitiveness, but that the favourite - Martin Lel - had to flee his home training camp in the Rift Valley, Kenya, after the region became embroiled in political violence following the disputed December elections. Lel insists though, that having moved to a tea plantation in another part of Kenya, and later Namibia, to train, he is ready to defend his title.

Despite doubts over his preparation, this is more than accounted for in his likely price. Lel is the most likely winner in the field and is value to back at [4.0] or bigger. Although three of his competitors on Sunday have posted faster personal bests, Lel is yet to target one of the city marathons that traditionally deliver optimum clock performances. Rather, he focuses on beating his competitors and winning races. And he's rather good at it: winning twice in London and twice in New York.

Another Kenyan, 21-year-old prodigy Wanjiri (represented in Betfair's market as Any Other Runner) is tipped by most as the one likely to upset the favourite. Resident in Japan, he therefore missed the turmoil faced by his compatriot during his preparations and comes into the race full of expectation. He's the world-record holder for the half-marathon (although Lel beat him at that distance in the Great North Run in November) and ran a stunning marathon debut time of 2:06.39 in Fukuoka in December. In the aftermath of the race he promised to run a 2:05 in the Spring. Big talk. And that's the problem: all the chat has shortened his price to a likely ridiculous 5.0. I won't be laying him (he's too talented to be aggressively against him) but he's unbackable at such a short price.

Neither can I back Goumri, who, despite finishing a close second to Lel in London and New York last year in his first two attempts at the distance, has yet to offer evidence that he can overcome that rival. Likely to be available at around [9.0], his price is unattractive.

Felix Limo has more to offer and I will be backing him at any price over [7.0]. He outsprinted Lel when winning London in 2006 and is also a previous winner of Chicago and Berlin. He had an indifferent 18 months recovering from a back problem and suffering in the heat of Chicago last year, but is reported back to his best.

Two other runners to have onside are Mutai (back at [14.0] or bigger) and Kifle (back at 40 or bigger). The former is only running his third marathon, having posted a sensational 2:06.29 in Amsterdam in October, whereas the latter was fifth in his marathon debut in 2:07.34. I think they will struggle to beat the market leaders in a close finish, but both should trade at shorter prices in-running.

It would be a surprise if any other runners were seriously competitive. Merga has one good marathon behind him - when second to Wanjiri in Fukuoka - but the balance of his form is inconsistent and so [17.0] looks unappealing. At a likely similar price, Ramaala looks equally unappealing. His victory in New York in 2004 is a long time ago now and other than that stand-out performance, he is a perennial placer, rarely troubling the winner's rostrum.

Baldini's Olympic win was achieved in the absence of real world-class competition; Hall should run well but is not good enough; Sokolov has yet to post a time that suggests he can mix it with the best Africans and the two Britains - Abyu and Robinson - will need to improve by four minutes to trouble the likely winner here.

The Record Time market requires the winner to break 2:05.38. Although not impossible, it is extremely unlikely. Forecast weather conditions don't prohibit it, but fast times are typically set in less competitive races. With so many rivals to watch, few will be watching the clock.

The men's race begins at 9.45am and will be shown live on the BBC.