Jack Houghton's Betting Challenge: Week one - athletics

Athletics / Jack Houghton / 15 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Pointing to Jack Houghton?

"A challenge has been set. Over the next 12 months, armed with a £1,000 bank, I’m going to bet on everything Betfair has to offer. And I’m going to win."

Betting.Betfair's editors explain the thinking behind Jack Houngton's new challenge before the award-winning racing journalist offers the first instalment of what should be a fascinating series of articles...

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise.

Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

* * *

In church recently, I heard a preacher refer to the Bible as, "the Winning on Betfair for Dummies of religious texts." So when on page 135 of our sacred punting tome it says: "winning gamblers specialise", we need to take note.

Specialising worked for me. After the odd false start I honed my betting approach: create speed ratings and apply them to a small subset of British races. Not only has this remained consistently profitable, but it has revolutionised my love life. Nothing turns a woman on like the internal machinations of an omniscient spreadsheet. Let me tell you, solemnly chanting VLOOKUP functions has proved far more fruitful than searching for the mythical G-spot.

True, there have been sidelines: an ongoing snooker ratings project involving hours of work for a desultory profit; the odd "value" bet on athletics and cycling; and, okay, £20 here and there on the X-Factor. What else am I to do with my Saturday nights? Otherwise I've stayed true to the word of the Dummies Guide.

Until this year that is. All discipline has slipped. I'm now betting on everything. And guess what? I'm winning. A lot. Well Armed in the Dubai World Cup. A London Marathon double. Lance to podium in the Tour De France. And then the bet the tennis world can't stop talking about: Roger Federer at [8.4] to win the French Open.

If you don't believe me, check out the archive. Even unspectacular advisories, like laying the front three in the betting in the 2,000 Guineas - whilst not groundbreaking - have still turned profit. In fact, with the exception of the World Snooker Championship - those pesky snooker ratings again - it's hard to find an event where the advice was ill.

This poses a doctrinal problem. The advice is clear in Winning on Betfair for Dummies and yet, here am I, eschewing said advice and still winning. After much thought and having sought wise counsel, it's clear the only possible explanations are:

a. I am God;
b. A well-honed betting antenna can quickly tune-in to the value in any event;
c. Even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut.

The hive-like editorial collective at betting.betfair are convinced I'm the blind squirrel. I'm fairly sure I'm the second-coming. A challenge has been set. Over the next 12 months, armed with a £1,000 bank, I'm going to bet on everything Betfair has to offer. And I'm going to win.

This week it's the Athletics' World Championships. My first two bets are going to be to lay Usain Bolt in both the 100m (£50 at [1.22]) and 200m (£50 at [1.10]). He is the most likely winner, true, but the hype and hyperbole surrounding his undoubted talent means his price his ridiculously short in both events. It's worth remembering that Tyson Gay was injured in the run up to those fast-track Olympics last year, and that this season it is the American who has posted the world's fastest times for both events.

Next up is a £10 back of Pamela Jelimo at [3.05] in the women's 800m. The athlete who looked set to dominate women's middle-distance in the long-term last season has struggled this; but she has regrouped and [3.05] looks massive for an athlete so far ahead of the talentless drivel that has inhabited this area of athletics for so long.

I will likely be getting involved in both the marathons a fair bit, but given still uncertain fields, the markets are yet to be put up on Betfair. Paula Radcliffe's decision to warm up for Berlin with a half-marathon in New York on Sunday seems bizarre to me and, depending on the prices, Kara Goucher may be worth supporting. But that will all have to wait.

The first bets are set. The challenge is on. May the word of God go with you.

Recommendations:

Lay Usain Bolt in Men's 100m. £50 at [1.22].
Lay Usain Bolt in Men's 200m. £50 at [1.10].
Back Pamela Jelimo in Women's 800m. £10 at [3.05].