Formula One Betting: Why the market has got Button and Hamilton's prices wrong
Athletics
/ David Croft / 25 April 2010 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet
Smile for the cameras: But Jenson Button can have the last laugh in the head-to-head between the two McLaren boys at a big price
David Croft talks us through his mammoth journey back from China because of our volcano friend and tells us why he can't get his head around Lewis Hamilton being the shorter price than Jenson Button to win the Drivers' Championship this year.
"So here we have two drivers at the top of their game, producing some brilliant British moments on the track and one of them, Jenson Button, now leads the drivers championship. Which means that in Betfair’s drivers champion market Jenson is the shortest price, right? Wrong. For some reason the punters are still backing Lewis and as it stands at the moment, I don’t think you’ve looked into it properly. Hamilton is chalked up at [4.8] to be World Champions this year, whilst Jenson Button is a huge [7.8]."
Well it took 59 hours door to door but I'm glad to say that I did make it home from the Chinese Grand Prix without too much of a problem this week. It was only on Sunday morning that the reality of the Icelandic Volcano really sunk in. Up until that point we all assumed we'd get home without a problem, expecting Mother Nature to stop spewing ash into the atmosphere for long enough for the F1 Circus to come back.
So here is how I managed to get home.
Sun 18th April: 11.30pm Emirates Flight from Shanghai to Dubai arriving in Dubai at 6am Monday morning
Monday 19th April: Day spent in Dubai on phone and internet trying to find a solution to the problem of no flights back to the UK. At 4pm came the breakthrough, Emirates had added a second flight to Nice leaving the next day.
Tuesday 20th April 3.30am: Get up and leave for the airport. 7am the boarding gate opens and as I settle into my Economy Class seat, I see Fernando Alonso, Tonio Liuzzi, Felipe Massa, Pedro de la Rosa and Sebastian Buemi all sitting in the back of the place with me.
Tuesday 21st April: 1pm Land in Nice and pick up hire car.
Tuesday 21st April: 10.30pm Arrive in Calais ( don't ask what speed my and my friends averaged), the French Police may not be too pleased to find out!
Wednesday 22nd April: 1.30am Arrive in Purfleet after a very nice man called Dean Coutts gave me a lift on the Euro Tunnel in his car. Mrs Croft arrives like an angel in the darkness to pick me up and drive the final leg home, getting to Chez Croft at 3am.
It was quite an adventure and a lot of the F1 entourage have only just arrived back as I write this column.
Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton meanwhile spent the week in Japan and South Africa respectively. Jenson was relaxing with his girlfriend Jessica whilst Lewis was on promotional duties for McLaren. Both of them left China with huge smiles on their faces after a brilliant race where they secured the first all British one-two since 1999 and McLaren's first one-two since the 2007 Italian Grand Prix.
Jenson described the win as one of his best ever. He was right to do so as the conditions were absolutely treacherous. But as it was in Australia, the victory was set up by his gamble to have slick tyres on his car at a time when most others in the race, Lewis Hamilton included, were on the intermediate wets. For Lewis it was one of his best races too, but for very different reasons. He managed, during the course of 56 laps, to make 10 overtaking passes, more than any other driver, and his three lap duel with Michael Schumacher will take some beating if it's not to become my personal highlight of the season.
So here we have two drivers at the top of their game, producing some brilliant British moments on the track and one of them, Jenson Button, now leads the drivers championship. Which means that in Betfair's drivers champion market Jenson is the shortest price, right?
Wrong. For some reason the punters are still backing Lewis and as it stands at the moment, I don't think you've looked into it properly. Hamilton is chalked up at [4.8] to be World Champions this year, whilst Jenson Button is a huge [7.8].
I've written before this season that because of the nature of the regulations in 2010 the hare might not always beat the tortoise. Lewis in Australia, Malaysia and China was immense, it's true. He was bold, brave, a man on a mission and not prepared to be stuck behind another car any longer than was absolutely necessary. Which makes for great entertainment, but all the while Lewis is charging through the field and racing on the ragged edge, he's not looking after his tyres as much. An effect which is exaggerated in 2010 with the heavier fuel loads at the start of the race.
Jenson meanwhile, a much more precise driver who doesn't tend to slide his car around and can extract far more life from his tyres, has run longer stints and benefited from that. Sir Jackie Stewart, talking to Autosport magazine
Some felt that Jenson was walking into the lion's den when he joined Mclaren but the way it's turned out, if that was the case then he had a stool and a whip tucked into his sleeves in readiness. To be leading the championship after 4 races with a new team and having won two more races than his team mate by this stage is the perfect scenario. What he needs now is to win a race in the dry, show that he can do it without the benefit of tyre calls and tricky conditions. When he does I'd expect Button's price to shorten considerably. To be honest I'm stumped as to why it hasn't shortened more than Lewis already. Maybe you're still sat there waiting to be convinced? Or maybe you don't believe what your eyes are telling you.
Button is the real deal, the defending champion and is ideally placed to win the McLaren battle in 2010, and maybe that title again.
Recommended Bets:
Back Jenson Button to win the Driver's Championship at [7.8]
Back Jenson Button to beat Lewis Hamilton in the season match bet at [2.78]