Back Page Betting: Field is safe as Radcliffe is unlikely to make it to Beijing

Athletics / Ralph Ellis / 15 July 2008 / Leave a Comment

Britain's greatest female athlete will not be on the marathon starting line unless she has a genuine chance of gold say Ralph Ellis.

Paula Radcliffe will go in the history books as arguably Britain's greatest female athlete of all time. Come to that she might even be Britain's greatest athlete of all time, full stop. Only Roger Bannister, as the first man to run a four-minute mile, can touch her achievements in not just breaking but shattering the world marathon record and rewriting the book on what is possible.

How cruel, then, that she seems destined to finish her career without the one thing she wanted most, an Olympic gold medal. It's a bit like the Mastercard advert. All the money that her other successes have brought cannot buy the one priceless thing she wants most. And the reality must be hitting home now that this year will be no different.

Paula was named in the Olympic team yesterday and promised that she can have right up until the day before the race to decide if she is fit enough to run the gruelling 26.2 miles in Beijing. Performance director Dave Collins is quoted at length in this morning's papers explaining why she will be given so much extra time. "Peformance brings privilege," he says. "Given her professionalism and commitment I am happy to give her the time. I don't think she will go for the T-shirt".

Now that is certain - given that Paula packed up a couple of miles from home in the last Olympics once she knew she couldn't win. First is first and everything else is nowhere, and she won't be on the start line for the marathon at this Olympics unless she genuinely believes she has a chance of gold.

But the hard reality is that even if Paula does line up, not even her super-human powers can defy the stress fracture which has completely destroyed her training plans. Any of we mere mortals who have trudged round the London route in four hours plus can tell you that everything depends on your training. If you haven't done the hard miles over the winter, been out in the wind and rain five times a week and got through at least a 20-mile run in training, then you aren't going to get round in a good time on the day. Magnify that through the level of training needed to run at Olympic pace. Magnify it again through the level needed to defy the heat, smog and humidity of Beijing, and Paula will have no chance.

Collins has told Hayley Haining to stay in training to be the official reserve if Radcliffe doesn't make it. There's a doubt, however, whether she would be allowed to run if Paula did pull out at the last minute as reserves are not supposed to be used to cover pre-existing injuries. And John Wragg in this morning's Daily Express gets to the nub of the matter as he quotes Collins again saying: "It would be an absolute miraculous call for Paula to win the gold medal".

That's reflected in the betting. Paula versus the field goes [1.06] for the field and [1.4] to lay. If you can get a bet for the field matched anywhere between those two levels it's safe money.

Five things you might not know about Paula Radcliffe

1. She was born in December 1973 in Cheshire during a blizzard.

2. She took up running to help get over asthma at the age of seven

3. She has a first class honours degree from Loughborough in European studies

4. Her husband and trainer Gary Lough was a 1,500 metre runner. His best time was 3.34.76 minutes

5. Her great aunt Charlotte won an Olympic medal in 1920 - as a swimmer in the 4 x 100m freestyle relay