Leighton Vaughan Williams

The Betfair Prof: "How Benford's Law might help you beat the odds!"

16 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Leighton Vaughan Williams tells us whether or not it's possible pick the fakers from the tossers!Read more »

On Course Over-Rounds: A joke for the last 100 years

09 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Over-rounds of 141% were commonplace in the early 20th century, so they've got better since right? Umm, no. Leighton Vaughan Williams explains...Read more »

The Betfair Prof: "Can the future influence the past? Serious scientists are asking the question!"

02 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Why are objects the size that they are? The answer is quite simple. It's the size of the molecules and atoms that make them up. Read more »

The Betfair Prof: 'Could the crowd have prevented 9/11?'

26 October 2009 / Leave a comment

The attack by al Qaeda on the World Trade Centre and on the Pentagon in September 2001 came as a surprise. But the information was out there.Read more »

The Betfair Prof: "Can orange juice help forecast the weather?"

16 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Whoever would have thought the economics of orange juice could be so interesting!Read more »

Why was the Arc triumph of the greatest racehorse such a bad result for the bookies?

06 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Why do favourites winning mean bad news for the bookies? The Betfair Prof explains...Read more »

The Betfair Prof: "Sell in May, Go Away, Buy Again on St. Leger Day". Or not?

29 September 2009 / Leave a comment

The Betfair Prof looks at the famous Mark Twain quote and gives us his take on a sure fire way to make some cash, or not, as the case may be...Read more »

Money talks. But not always!

24 September 2009 / Leave a comment

The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, tells us that money talks, most of the time... It's a few days since I backed Treaty Flyer to win the 3.40 'rippleeffect.com Handicap Hurdle' at Bangor-on-Dee. Generally available at [8.0] (a little longer on Betfair), the eight-year old chestnut mare was two pounds...Read more »

The Betfair Prof: Manipulators may be good for prediction markets

21 September 2009 / Leave a comment

The Betfair Prof explains why, rather than presenting a danger, manipulators of betting markets are actually offering their fellow punters a free lunch......Read more »

The Betfair Prof: "I need to laugh, and when the sun is out, I've got something I can laugh about" (Lennon and McCartney)

08 September 2009 / Leave a comment

Why it might pay to keep an eye on the weather...Read more »

The Betfair Prof: "Should we sack the manager?"

07 September 2009 / Leave a comment

What decides whether or not a manager's time is up? The Betfair Prof tells all...Read more »

The Betfair Prof: "What does football forecasting have to do with Prussian soliders?"

26 August 2009 / Leave a comment

What does football forecasting have to do with the number of Prussian soldiers kicked to death by horses? Thanks to Simeon Denis Poisson, the great scientist, mathematician and statistician, it has everything to with it. To explain why, we need to travel back to the early nineteenth century and the...Read more »

What happens when you call a glass half full when it is in fact half empty?

18 August 2009 / Leave a comment

The prediction market master looks at the effects of 'optimism bias' with the help of Google......Read more »

A tale of what 18th century playgoers can tell us about the 'wisdom of crowds'

20 July 2009 / Leave a comment

James Boswell, the acclaimed diarist and biographer of Dr. Samuel Johnson, reportedly dropped to his knees and kissed the playRead more »

What two bottles of tomato ketchup can teach us about the efficiency of financial markets!

13 July 2009 / Leave a comment

Traditional finance is more concerned with checking that the price of two 8-ounce bottles of ketchup is close to the price of one 16-ounce bottle than it is in understanding the price of the 16 ounce bottleRead more »

Prediction Market Theory: How a book published in 1921 can help explain the 2008 Wall Street Crash!

29 June 2009 / Leave a comment

The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, explains it all......Read more »

The Betfair Prof: "What do prediction markets, an article published in 1952, and the Babylonian Talmud have in common? And where does Don Quixote fit in?"

17 June 2009 / Leave a comment

The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, tells all......Read more »

Prediction Markets: What the 2009 Epsom Derby can tell us about the market, and about the ballot box!

09 June 2009 / 1 Comments

The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, takes a look at the ins-and-outs of the Epsom Derby......Read more »

The Betfair Prof: Alice's adventures in the looking glass world of prediction markets!

01 June 2009 / Leave a comment

What's Alice In Wonderland got to do with Prediction Markets? It's a wonderful world, says Leighton Vaughan Williams......Read more »

Would John McCain have raised taxes? There's no need to guess. Just ask the prediction markets!

20 May 2009 / Leave a comment

The Betfair Prof looks at what would have happened if John McCain made it to the White House......Read more »