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State of Origin II Betting Preview: Prince is No King

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Scott Prince has been touted by many as Queensland's saviour but his selection may prove to be the Maroons undoing, writes Nick Tedeschi...

There is little doubt that Scott Prince is playing in career best form. The Gold Coast halfback has led the Titans to the top of the table with effective ball movement, an ability to breakdown defenses and a fine kicking game.

Prince sits second in the NRL in try assists with 16; equal third in line break assists with nine and has the second fewest errors amongst starting halfbacks with 10-plus games under their belt in 2008.

Prince is an offensive weapon and the most in-form pivot in the competition at that.

Unfortunately for Prince and for Queensland, Origin matches are rarely won on the back of attacking flair. State of Origin is a battle of wills and a dogfight for momentum.

Defense and the tone of same is where State of Origin is decided. And Scott Prince, defensively, is a weakness.

The Titans number seven has missed 30 tackles in 2008 and averages fewer tackles per game than every other half or five eighth with 10 matches played, bar one.

That "one" is Johnathan Thurston, the other Queensland half. Prince makes only 12.7 tackles per match. Thurston makes 12.5.

With a ruthless and aggressive New South Wales forward pack that have been well drilled by the best tactician in the game, Prince and Thurston will both be heavily targeted.

It would seem unlikely that either will respond with the impact or effectiveness that Karmichael Hunt did in game one.

Even if Hunt does start, Thurston and Prince will spend significant time on the field together and that creates a major problem for the Queensland team.

Defensively, they will be targeted. In attack, it seems unlikely that the Queensland forward pack will provide enough of a platform for the duo to be effective.

Another major concern for the Maroons is the fitness of prop Steve Price. Price is a brilliant go-forward man and a tremendously hard worker and at his best would be one of the pillars of the Queensland pack.
The Warriors prop has, however, been sidelined with a hamstring injury for much of the season and has only played 123 minutes all year.

In his two matches back, Price has not played sixty minutes and has averaged less than 100 metres in total gain. In both those games Price has struggled for fitness. He may well be found out on Wednesday night.

Suncorp Stadium has also been far from a fortress for Queensland in recent times. While Queensland have won five of the last eight games played in the Sunshine State, they have trailed at the break on five occasions as well.

They cannot afford to start poorly this year as nobody can adjust a game-plan to protect a lead like Craig Bellamy.

There are too many question marks over the Queensland team to bet them as favourites. The value is with New South Wales.

They can be bet to win outright as well as in the halftime/fulltime double market.

Expect New South Wales to come out firing, establishing an early lead before shutting the game down and holding on to claim the series.