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Origin III Betting: Can the Cockroaches make it two in the 'Bush for 2008?

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An analysis of Origin II circa 2008 provides a number of results: was Queensland simply that good? Was New South Wales' performance just completely woeful? Did other factors, like refereeing, play a part? One must admit that the 30-0 score line is a very difficult one to ignore, and despite their emphatic record at home, the Blues face an uphill battle in trying to turn their fortunes around...

New South Wales v Queensland
State of Origin III | ANZ Stadium, Sydney
July 2nd 2008, 8pm AEST | Live on Nine

THE BETTING
Origin punters are nothing if not consistent, mirroring pre-match betting from games 1 and 2 by installing the Maroons solid 1.69 favourites over the Blues, who layers presently deem a 2.42 chance at best. Far happier to trade around a Queensland result, punters have bet less than a third of all money invested around NSW. They appear an unknown quantity; perhaps a sleeping giant?

THE TEAMS
Replacement Blues halves Braith Anasta and teen debutante Mitchell Pearce have been a sensation for the Chooks this year, but Origin is a different proposition. The Maroons showed in game 2 though, the difference in having a proven playmaker pairing, so perhaps NSW can take heart from that. The Cockroaches have also had to find a replacement for game 1 star Mark Gasnier to take on game 2 hero Greg Inglis, which is significant. The Canetoads go in unchanged; a great confidence-booster.

THE FORM
The previous wins of either team have been dominant, although it's difficult to disagree that Queensland's was particularly so last time out. Spoiled for backline talent, Mal Meninga's mob will be hoping to replicate their Lang Park whitewash. This is the main reason for their firm support with punters, although NSW's near-perfect form at home should certainly not be ignored.

THE VENUE
ANZ Stadium is an enigma by anyone's standards. Darren Lockyer said this week that Queensland "have an issue" playing at the arena. You don't say, Locky; they've won once in 12 attempts there. Pim Verbeek reckons its surface is simply "not good enough". Countless Socceroo, AFL and NRL players would concur by virtue of needing to remember to bring their ice skates to Homebush. NSW played the conditions at ANZ best in game 1, rushing the Queensland line and preventing them from playing their expansive game which was so fruitful in Brisbane. When it comes to the venue, the Blues have a distinct advantage.

THE VERDICT
There's little doubt that Queensland's outside backs - Inglis, Folau, Slater, Hunt and Co. - have the firepower to score a winning total as they did in Brisbane. However, the typically greasy conditions of ANZ Stadium provide NSW with a platform their forward strength can drive home. With their grand track record in mind, the Blues provide wonderful head-to-head value at 2.42, or with a 4.5 point head start at 1.90. The Maroons deserve favouritism, but we won't see a repeat of Brisbane; if you like the visitors, the 3.15 available on a 1-12 point victory in the winning margin market provides outstanding value.