Rugby League / Nick Tedeschi / 14 August 2008 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external">Bet Now

The Roosters rely heavily on the aerial assault to score. The Storm can weather the bomb better than any other team. It could be a long night for Roosters supporters, says Nick Tedeschi.

The Roosters have two big negatives going into this week's clash with the Storm. They are a team that is too reliant on scoring tries from kicks and they have a pack that is too heavy and immobile. Both factors will have a large influence on not only the Rooster's chances against Melbourne but on their hopes of winning the premiership.

The Roosters rely more heavily on scoring tries from kicks than any other team in the NRL. Against a Melbourne Storm team that includes the likes of Israel Folau, Greg Inglis, Anthony Quinn and Billy Slater, that could prove disastrous. The Roosters are not going to be able to compete with the Storm in the air. With a distinct inability to score points on the ground against weaker defensive teams than the Storm, the number one defensive outfit in the NRL, it would appear that the Roosters are not going to score a great deal of points this Friday night.

The size and immobility of the Roosters forward pack will also prove a deciding factor. O'Meley, Shillington, Mason, the Paea brothers, Shackleton and Cherrington may all be tough but they lack the lateral movement and stamina required to be effective against Melbourne. The Storm will game plan heavily for this with the likes of Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater likely to cause a great deal of angst for the Roosters big men around the ruck. They will run all day and carve the Roosters up in the middle-third of the field.

Put simply, this looks a bad match-up for the Roosters, a team who are playing more like pretenders than contenders at present. Their loss to Parramatta last weekend was simply astounding considering their standing on the premiership ladder.

The venue of the match provides no relief for the Roosters either. The Storm have once again proved untouchable at home this season. Since losing their opening game of the season to the Sharks, the closest a team has got to the Storm at Olympic Park is fourteen points. In the eight games since the Cronulla loss, the Storm have held their opposition to a single-digit score on six occasions. It is known as The Graveyard for a reason.

The Storm, not surprisingly, are a wonderful 8-2 against the handicap in Melbourne this season.

Melbourne are too talented and too multi-dimensional for a Roosters team who are very predictable. Melbourne should be bet in the match odds, the half-time/full-time double and handicap markets. Traders should also look to be the under in the total points market as a total score in the low thirties would not surprise.

In the other Friday night match, bettors are almost compelled to bet the Dragons as an outsider. The Dragons have absolutely dominated the Broncos in recent times, winning the last six games played between the two teams. In those six matches, three of which were played at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane have not accumulated a score in excess of sixteen points. It should also be noted that the Dragons are prone to turning their form around quickly against teams they have a good recent history against, just as they did against Manly earlier in the season. Take the Dragons straight out and with the points.

The Warriors-Sharks contest looks destined to be a dour struggle with a bet on the under advised. Cronulla are the worst attacking team in the competition while the Warriors have been sensational defensively in Auckland recently, holding the Storm to only six points and the Broncos to a measly twelve. Cronulla have made a habit of winning close games this season but this looks like one they will lose. The Warriors have too much presence at home. Take them in the match odds market.

Most interest in the Cowboys-Titans game revolves around the return of one star halfback and the possible return of another. Johnathan Thurston will play his first game for the Cowboys since round eighteen while Scott Prince is considered some hope of returning from a broken arm sustained in Origin III. Betting will change markedly if Prince is recalled. The Titans have won two of their last eleven while the Cowboys have won only once in their last fourteen outings. With the Cowboys starting big favourites, it is probably wise to take the Titans with the points and hope Prince plays.

Penrith may have been beaten by an incredible sixty-two points last weekend but they are big favourites against a Bulldogs team on its knees. Penrith have won five of their last six against Canterbury and will be steeled after a tough week on the training paddock. Penrith have been an unreliable betting proposition this season, particularly at home, but should have no problem accounting for a Bulldogs team lacking experience and confidence.

The one sure bet in the Raiders-Knights match is that there will be plenty of points scored. It is a match to take the over in the total points market, particularly if the line is set at anywhere under fifty. The last three times these two teams have met at Canberra Stadium total scores of 66, 102 and 53 have been recorded. With Canberra having scored thirty-plus in their last three home matches and the Knights having tallied thirty-plus points in their last three encounters, a high scoring encounter is well and truly on the cards. The Raiders also look a sound bet as they have been unstoppable at home of late. Take them in the match odds and handicap markets.

Manly, keen to atone for their close loss to Melbourne last Friday night, should have little trouble in disposing of a South Sydney team that has been leaking points all year. In their last ten games, the Bunnies have allowed their opposition to post a score in excess of twenty points. Against the number one attacking team in the competition, things could get ugly for the men in cardinal and myrtle. Bet the Eagles at the minus as well as in the half-time/full-time double market.

Parramatta are the team to bet in Monday Night Football. The Eels have not lost to the Tigers since 2004, winning seven on the trot against the Tim Sheens coached team. Parramatta were on song last weekend against the Roosters and a performance like that would see them cast the Tigers away with ease, particularly now the Tigers have lost key forward Todd Payten. Bet Parramatta in the match odds market in what should be an entertaining affair.