Rugby League / Nick Tedeschi / 25 July 2008 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external">Bet Now

Manly may sit second on the table and the Roosters fourth but the gap between the two teams is far greater, writes Nick Tedeschi.

Last week Willie Mason was voted by his peers the most overrated player in the game. The tag of overrated certainly extends beyond Mason to the remainder of his Roosters team. They are not nearly as good as many would suggest.

The last six weeks have told the real story of the Roosters. Over that period, the Roosters have suffered brutal defeats at the hands of Manly and Canberra, a shocking loss as a huge favourite to the Gold Coast and got away with unconvincing wins against Canterbury and Newcastle.

Their round 14 win against Penrith was their only impressive victory. In their three losses, they allowed 30-plus ponts. The team ranks in the second quarter for both points scored (fifth) and points conceded (fifth), has an over-reliance on scoring from kicks and struggles to break the line.

Their lack of creativity with the ball, combined with a poor attitude, has seen the Roosters struggle of late. When things aren't going right for the Roosters, the forward pack refuses to dig in while the halves revert into their shell.

Manly, conversely, are flying. The Eagles, clear leaders as the best attacking (26.5 points per game) and defensive (12.5 points per game) team in the NRL, are the real deal.

Manly have won seven in a row and eleven of the last twelve and in their last seven victories they have only allowed one team, the Warriors in Auckland, to get within two converted tries of them. They have been outstandingly efficient with the ball and amazingly brutal in defense.

Even after Matt Orford withdrew immediately prior to their game with the Eels last week and Jamie Lyon went off hurt early in the same match, Manly managed to amass 28 points.

It is difficult to picture the Roosters scoring against Manly. They will struggle to penetrate the best defense in the league while they should receive very little reward from their kicking game against the very good back three of Stewart, Robertson and Williams.

Manly are marginal favourites and can be bet with total confidence in the match odds market. They can also be bet heavily in the half-time/full-time double market and giving only 2 ½ points. Looking to bet the Eagles to win by 13-plus is also a very good wager with plenty of value.

In the Friday night affairs, it looks set to be a favoured double with Brisbane and Parramatta the likely winners.

The Broncos have a super record against the Sharks, winning six of the last eight and winning every clash at Suncorp Stadium since 2004. Brisbane will be fired up after a rocket from Wayne Bennett this week while the return of Justin Hodges should add some spark to their backline. Bet the Broncos in the match odds market.

Parramatta should be too strong for the hapless Cowboys, who have now lost twelve in a row. Nothing is for certain with Parramatta, however, and while they should win, the best bet is taking the Cowboys with the 11 ½ point start.

In the first of the Saturday matches, the Raiders should have no problem disposing of the Titans at home despite the controversy the club has been embroiled in this week.

Both teams have been good to punters this season with both having a 10-7 against the line record. The Titans bubble has, however, burst due to injury while the Raiders are in red hot form after decimating the Roosters last weekend. Canberra won the corresponding clash in 2007 56-10 and it would not surprise if a similar result was achieved this Saturday.

Despite Penrith's erratic form this season, they can be supported as marginal favourites in the match odds market against the Wests Tigers. The Panthers have won 10 of 14 against the Tigers and if Frank Pritchard brings his recent form, he should slice the questionable Tigers fringe defense to shreds.

In the remaining Sunday games, Melbourne and Newcastle are the selections though neither should be supported in handicap betting.

The Storm have not lost since round three if you take out their three losses when the Storm Origin stars were on Origin duty. Melbourne have won six of their last eight against the Warriors, including their last two at Mt. Smart.

With the team in such fine form, they can be bet with confidence in the match odds and half-time/full-time double markets. Avoid taking the Storm at the minus, however, as the Storm are 1-4 as road favourites this season.

While the Knights should get the points against South Sydney, having won 22 out of the 27 matches played between the two teams, the Bunnies are a better wager in the handicap market with 7 ½ points start.

The last four games between the two teams have been determined by less than a converted try and both sides have been involved in plenty of close affairs this season. The Knights are also 1-3 as a home favourite against the line this season, further strengthening the push for Souths.

Despite their dreadful season to date, the Bulldogs are a sound wager in both the match odds and handicap markets (plus 6 ½) against the Dragons with the return of Sonny Bill Williams.

Despite denials from coach Steve Folkes and senior Bulldogs players, the simple reality is that the Bulldogs are lifeless and inept without SBW. His return should give the Bulldogs plenty of impetus against a Dragons team that has been less than convincing of late and has an appalling recent record against the Bulldogs.

The Dragons have lost their last seven against Canterbury and nine of their last ten. The Bulldogs can be bet as outsiders and at the plus in what looks like a good wager to finish off the round.