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NRL Preview: Eels will prove no match for the red hot Eagles

Manly are too skillful and too tough for an overrated Parramatta team that is missing its number one attacking weapon, writes Nick Tedeschi

There is no disputing the toughness of the Manly team. They are the best defensive team in the NRL, allowing only 2.2 tries and 12.7 points per game.

That is 1.5 less points per match than the Storm and an incredible 4.2 less points per game than the third best defensive outfit in the competition, at least statistically, the St.George-Illawarra Dragons.

Manly have a sound defensive structure in place with the right mix of aggression and hard work in their personnel.

The Eagles can suffocate even the best attacking teams. Parramatta is not such a team. They rank sixth in points scored in the NRL but that figure has been severely inflated by a number of midseason blowouts against besieged teams.

Even at their best, Parramatta would struggle to breakdown the Eagles oppressive defense. Without their number one attacking weapon, Feleti Mateo, they are no hope.

Mateo leads the Eels in offloads, line breaks and tackle breaks while sitting second in try assists and line break assists. The Eels look remarkably one dimensional without Mateo.

Manly, conversely, have attacking weapons across the park and are the masters of second phase play. The Eagles clearly lead the NRL in points scored, nearly four points ahead of the second placed team. They have Matt Orford leading the NRL in try assists and Brett Stewart and Michael Robertson sitting third and fourth respectively in tries scored.

More telling is Manly's ability to create second phase play, particularly relative to Parramatta's inability to do so without Mateo.

Manly have four players in the top thirteen in offloads this season. Parramatta's leader is Chad Robinson, who sits 20th. Manly also have four players ahead of Parramatta's leading breaker of tackles, Luke Burt, who most likely won't play either. Parramatta are not renowned for shutting down the ball and will pay a heavy price for that on Friday night.

All signs are pointing to a massive Manly victory. Look to bet the Eagles with extreme confidence in the match odds market and bet them heavily in the handicap market and to win by a margin of greater than 12 ½.

In the other Friday night game the Brisbane Broncos should bounce back from their shock loss to the Bulldogs last week.

The Cowboys have lost 10 on the trot and have now lost Johnathan Thurston to injury. It is doubtful they will push a Broncos team desperate to return to the top eight. Darren Lockyer will be better for the run last week and the Broncos as a unit will be better for a full preparation this week, something that was missing after Wayne Bennett gave his team a midseason post-Origin holiday.

The Cowboys, however, should have enough in the tank to keep it close. Of their 10 straight losses, only three have been by more than 12 points. The Cowboys can be bet in the handicap market with the very large plus.

The first of the Saturday matches is an interesting affair with the Penrith Panthers traveling to the Gold Coast to take on the Titans. The Panthers certainly have a better team on paper with the Titans ravaged by injury. They are, however, perennial underachievers and the Panthers may struggle to get any cohesion at Skilled Park, a ground renowned for its noise.

Preston Campbell will be the key to this game. The former Dally M Medal winner is having a stellar season and if he has a big involvement, he will keep the big Panthers forwards on their heels.

In the two late contests, the Knights and the Bulldogs are the selections. Punters should look to either lay the Sharks in the match odds market or bet the Knights in the handicap market.

The Sharks have been risky propositions as favourites this season and considering they rarely win by large margins and the fact Newcastle rarely get blown out, the Knights look the safer way to wager. Also factor in that the Sharks are 8-13 under Tony Archer while the Knights are 13-9.

The Bulldogs also seem to have a slight edge over the Warriors. New Zealand have won only two of eight in Australia this season and really struggled to beat the Cowboys last week. With the Bulldogs finally hitting some form last Sunday, they are worthy favourites in this contest.

The Raiders will again put in an honest performance this week against the Roosters and can be bet as an outsider and at the plus in the handicap market.

The Roosters have not won at Bruce since 2004 and will be mentally scarred by their dreadful home loss to the Titans. If the Raiders play anywhere near their best, they will be very difficult to beat.