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NRL Preview: Disarming the Knights

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The Knights and the Roosters may be evenly matched statistically in both attack and defence but their round 15 match on Sunday will be anything but close, writes Nick Tedeschi.

Many years ago my statistics professor made a comment that has stuck with me. Statistics, he said, are like bikinis. What they reveal is important. What they don't is critical.

That mantra will prove true this Sunday.

Statistically, the Sydney Roosters and the Newcastle Knights are fairly evenly matched. In attack, the Roosters make a few more errors than the Knights but they have averaged a slightly higher score.

In most other categories of significance like metres gained and offloads, both teams rank near the top this season. Defensively, both teams have performed very similarly with both teams ranking in the middle third in important statistical indicators.

Basic statistics suggest this match will be close. It will be anything but.

In fact, the Roosters look set to run in a score against the Newcastle Knights and can be bet with confidence in head-to-head, margin and half-time/full-time doubles markets.

The concern for the Knights is the fact that they rely too heavily on Kurt Gidley. Gidley plays a roving role with Newcastle with stints at fullback in defense and hooker and halfback in attack.

The reasons for this are multifold. Danny Buderus is getting on in years and is no longer as effective out of dummy half against good defensive teams as he once was while Jarrod Mullen is still learning his craft and is prone to go missing throughout matches when defensive pressure is high.

Roosters coach Brad Fittler has no doubt identified that Newcastle are somewhat one dimensional in attack and will focus a good deal of energy in shutting down Kurt Gidley, believing that if the Roosters can keep him quiet then they will win the game and win well.

One need only look at Gidley's numbers this season to show how important the mercurial fullback is to the Knights. Gidley leads the Knights in metres gained, tackle breaks and average runs while sitting second in tries scored and third in line breaks.

The Roosters, by contrast, are renowned for having threats all over the park. They have a dominant forward pack that work hard and eat up the metres, they have two halves in Anasta and Pearce who both have more try assists than Newcastle's leading set-up man and they have a multitude of outside backs that can score tries.

Another important fact that must be considered is Newcastle's appalling recent record against the Roosters.

The Knights have not beaten the Roosters outside of Grahame Park in Gosford since 2002 and are 2-7 against the Roosters at Energy Australia Stadium. Throw in the fact that Newcastle have been only fair at home this season (3-3) while the Roosters have been good on the road (5-3), the signs for Newcastle are ominous.

It should also be noted that teams backing up from Monday Night Football this season are 7-11 head-to-head and against the spread while the Roosters have won their last five under referee Tony Archer compared to the Knights, who have lost their last two under the Origin whistleblower.