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NRL betting preview: Stats point one way in Origin 1

Danny Buderus is looking to claim a State of Origin record, but all the statistics point to a Queensland victory in game one, says Andy Morris.

State of Origin means so much to players, and the prospect of playing in his final series before joining Super League is all the incentive Newcastle's Danny Buderus needs to produce his best form over the three games.

As added spice, Buderus can look forward to the chance of becoming New South Wales' record-breaking captain. If he plays in all three games, he will beat Brad Fittler's total of 14 games as Blues captain.

Buderus led the Blues to series wins in 2004 and 2005, but fans of the Maroons have been celebrating since then.

And they will argue that all the signs point to them achieving a third straight series victory.

The best indicator as to how the players will go in State of Origin is how they have performed so far in the NRL.

There is plenty to smile about in that case, for Queensland supporters.

North Queensland's Johnathan Thurston has come right back to form in 2008, shaking off his injury problems and already riding high in the player charts.

Thurston is the joint-third top points scorer with 72 so far in the competition, as well as joint-third goal scorer with 30 to his name.

He is also third on the list of line-breakers, with nine, and is already into double-figures for try assists this season, having created 10 tries for his Cowboys' teammates.

Queensland is by no means a one-man team. Fullback Billy Slater of the Storm is joint third in the league's try-scoring list, with seven, and has made the most line breaks (11).

And Petero Civoniceva has settled in well with his new club the Panthers. He lies second in the NRL list of runs, with 1215 metres gained from his 133 runs so far.

The Maroons have taken what is the biggest gamble in recent Queensland Origin history, picking specialist fullback Karmichael Hunt ahead of the Titans' Scott Prince.

But coach Mal Meninga has made few bad decisions in his time with Queensland - he has won four of the six Origin games during his time with the Maroons.

And Hunt should be able to provide plenty of chances for the likes of debutant Israel Folau. The Storm wing has six tries already this season, as well as 46 tackle busts.

Punters seeking value may do well to back another Queensland win in game one. Traders could also be rewarded at big odds for backing a New South Wales/Queensland half-time/full-time outcome - last year the Blues led at the break in two of the games, while the other was level at half-time.