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Nick Tedeschi's Round 16 NRL betting preview

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A Newcastle Knights outfit without Kurt Gidley will almost certainly be beaten by a nearly full-strength Manly team, says Nick Tedeschi.

It is the same old story, once more. This weekend's Manly-Newcastle clash won't be a battle played out on a level playing field. It will be a battle of depth and will be decided by those missing rather than those playing.

Manly, currently leading the NRL, are, strangely enough, missing only fullback Brett Stewart. Newcastle, conversely, will be missing Kurt Gidley, Danny Buderus and Ben Cross, despite the fact they are fighting it out on the fringes of the eight.

The loss of top metre-eater Gidley, top tackler Buderus and top forward Cross will prove too much for the Knights to overcome. No team can adequately replace that loss of talent and Newcastle are no exception, particularly when they are up against a team of Manly's quality.

The Eagles have slipped under the radar this season but they are certainly on track for back-to-back Grand Final appearances.

The Sea Eagles are the leading attacking team in the NRL, averaging 25.15 points per game while also being the leading defensive outfit, allowing only 13.15 points per game. The Eagles lead the NRL in offloads, sit second in metres gained and third in tackle breaks while defensively, no team concedes fewer tries or metres.

With Matt Orford, Jamie Lyon, Anthony Watmough, Brent Kite and Glenn Stewart all playing, Manly have too much firepower for a Knights team that will be gritty but disjointed.

The only time these two teams have met in Gosford, in round 22 last season, Manly romped in 50-16.

Punters should look to bet Manly in the match winner market as well as looking at the points margin.

Most other games have been similarly affected by the loss of Origin stars.

In the Friday night games, the markets are significantly different to what would normally be expected due to State of Origin. The Roosters-Bulldogs clash is virtually a pick game despite the fact the Roosters sit near the top of the table and the injury-ravaged Bulldogs are coming off their worst loss in over fifty years.

The Roosters will be without five key players and with Sonny Bill Williams returning for Canterbury, the Bulldogs have a perfect opportunity to atone. The talented Kiwi looks set to be the difference, making the Bulldogs the team to beat.

In the other Friday night clash, expect the Baby Broncos to put in an honest performance against the Panthers. The Panthers tend to play down to the level of their opposition in games they are expected to win and despite fielding a more talented team, they are vulnerable. The Broncos looks the best value bet.

The Gold Coast Titans look a great bet as the home underdog in their Saturday night match with the Dragons. The Titans have won all seven of their matches at Skilled Park this season and while the Dragons have been playing well, they hardly set the world on fire against Penrith last week.

Brad Davis played well when he stepped in for Scott Prince last time and can get the job done against the Dragons.

In the final Saturday game, the Cowboys look to be a team in total disarray after losing eight in a row and matters will not be helped by the loss of Johnathan Thurston to Origin duty. Souths start favourites for the first time in 2008 and the likes of John Sutton and Isaac Luke should have a field day against a brittle Cowboys defense. The Bunnies should win and win well.

The Sunday games will see both Parramatta and the Wests Tigers start big favourites against a depleted Melbourne Storm and a Warriors outfit that has struggled on the road all season.

Parramatta are lethal in attack and are real flat track bullies. The likes of Feleti Mateo and Brett Finch should have no problem carving an inexperienced Storm side to shreds and running in a monster score.

The Tigers, on the other hand, may struggle to win against the Warriors. The Tigers have won only three of their last ten against the Auckland-based side and with a distinct lack of size up front, the Warriors should be able to keep it close.

The final game of the week will be the Monday Night Football clash between Canberra and Cronulla at Bruce Stadium. The Raiders have been wonderful at home this season in winning four of six but the Sharks are playing tough footy and Ricky Stuart has the inside running on what it takes to win in Canberra.

The Sharks have won four of their last five against Canberra and should be bet in what looks like a cracking game.