Betfair Official Blog

Super Saturday Betting Post-Mortem

The plague of EI arrived from alien worlds. El Segundo, Maldivian and Pompeii Ruler succumbed to season-ending harm. Meurice sadly went to meet his maker. A mysterious punter named Jack Hindon stole the headlines for all the wrong reasons.

The world was plunged into darkness.

So God said 'Let there be Light Fantastic'. And there was. And it was good.

Despite a relatively successful spring carnival in Victoria alone, it could be reasonably argued that Australian racing had still not yet recovered from the equine flu, which also had an equally crippling - which will prove for some time, ongoing - effect on the local breeding industry.

Then came the aptly-named festival 'Super Saturday'.

If the three Group I races and $4 million in prize money up for grabs wasn't enough to be thankful for, it was the hitherto potential turf superstars that chose this day to shake the 'potential' tag, that was truly exhilarating; the veritable shot in the arm we needed so badly.

First to dazzle was Weekend Hussler in the time-honoured Newmarket Handicap, oft referred to as the 'Melbourne Cup of Sprints'. With three Group I feathers in his already ample cap, it was almost a given that 'the Hussler' would live up to the hype generated by many, not least of which his trainer Ross McDonald.

Standing in his way though, was history: no 3yo had successfully carried such an impost as the 56kg Brad Rawiller was asked to bear on Saturday, since the mighty Ajax in 1938. Further to this, only nine gallopers - the most recent of which being the grand sprinter Schillaci in 1992 - had completed the Oakleigh Plate-Newmarket double in more than 120 years.

As we know, the hype was franked following a short battle to get past international performer Magnus, and discerning exchange punters caught up in it were vindicated. Some were lucky enough to have bets matched at [1.91] on the Hussonet gelding; a far cry from the traded low of [1.7] and last matched odds of [1.78]. Things were scarcely different in the months leading up to the race either, as a look at Betfair's Newmarket ante-post market suggests: the horse traded there at a high of [5], but consistently at odds-on prices. He reached a low of [1.8] before last trading at [1.96] as the market closed.

"He will surely get beaten someday", a more philosophical Weekend Hussler layer has since told me. Unfortunately for him, and many others of like mind, Super Saturday was not the day. His main autumn target is now the Doncaster Handicap at Randwick on April 26th. He will no doubt absorb a flood of betting money for this race, so exchange punters would be well advised to consider the [3.5] currently available on Betfair's ante-post market. Punters with greater foresight than I can also back the equine pop star at [42] in the Melbourne Cup, should they think he'll successfully see out a two-mile trip in November!

The second Super Saturday supernova was Light Fantastic; his stage, the Cadbury Guineas. Like Weekend Hussler in Ross McDonald's stable, the flashy grey - despite having the experience of only three race starts, considered a highly atypical Guineas campaign - had already received from Mick Price the tag of "best horse I've trained". And like Weekend Hussler, he did not disappoint, staving off late challenges from Playwright and Marching to salute.

Also like in the case of Weekend Hussler, Light Fantastic had his backers jumping for joy. Always prominent in the market in the wake of a succession of dominant victories, the Danehill Dancer gelding had layers cautious from the word go; no better than [4.60] was matched despite the presence of some experienced and quality rivals. On the day of the race, the story was much the same, with [2.66] the last price traded as punters piled in.

The last of the Group I winners for the day perhaps provided the most romantic story of the three. The venerable Bart Cummings, trainer of 248 Group I winners and a record eleven Melbourne Cups, was attempting to prepare his 13th Australian Cup victor, also a record, with Sirmione. [3.85] at the off, before him stood a field comprising the cream of local wfa gallopers, and in particular his last-start conqueror and race favourite, Kiwi mare Princess Coup [2.88].

Such was the popularity of the duo a market on the two running the quinella was framed. Punters were not so keen: the 'Yes' vote to a quinella of the pair trading at an average of [3.73]; the converse matched at average odds of [1.38]. Value punters, seemingly for the first time for the day, were accurate.

So too were Sirmione's supporters who, on the back of a brilliant ride from Peter Mertens and a not-so-brilliant one from Damien Oliver on Princess Coup, got the chocolates. So much so that a best price of [7.80] was offered and taken on the winner.

Ultimately, backers and layers, winners and losers alike will no doubt feel a little warm and fuzzy that Australian racing is facing an exciting period, after enduring a very arduous one. Granted, the effect of EI has probably been felt amongst those in other areas of the industry in a more drastic fashion than it has punters.

It must be said though, that when the best horseflesh is on display, punters are more passionate about joining the fray.

And naturally, there's no better place to have a punt than Betfair.