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Blue Diamond Stakes - why question Wilander?

Why question Wilander?

Victoria's richest two-year-old race, the Blue Diamond Stakes, sets the stage for a mouth-watering clash of the best early season juveniles and in particular the rematch of the Lee Freedman stablemates Wilander and Exceedingly Good.

Punters are often drawn into trying to find holes with the favourites and thus any perceived value in the betting but sometimes there simply aren't any significant flaws and continuing to search can blind people from the obvious. Naturally juvenile form can be quickly reversed early on in a career, however in studying Caulfield's big race it is hard to get away from Wilander.

On first sight, the low draw for all three Freedman runners look like positives, however there has to be question marks about the inside draw for Exceedingly Good. Barrier 1 in any big race can never be seen as straightforward and there is a worry about where Corey Brown is going to find himself in the early stages.

Matters however look far simpler for Betfair's likely favourite Wilander with Luke Nolen likely to aim for the front from an ideal draw in barrier 5.

His annihilation of a Ballarat maiden at the end of January could not have been more impressive but the race to concentrate on was his impressive victory over his stablemate Exceedingly Good in the Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude at Caulfield.

Some layers may point to the extra 100 metres he encounters on Saturday and the fact that Exceedingly Good was returning from a 14-week spell against his race-fit stablemate, however I have watched the replay over and over again and just watch the way Wilander extends in the final 50 metres and undoubtedly he has plenty more to come over the longer distance.

Predicting pace is never an exact science but I don't think there will be a suicidal tempo with only perhaps Chilean Miss likely to try and lead on the inside of Wilander, however should there be an on-pace battle this could play into the hands of Burgeis who will not be inconvenienced by her wide-draw and will be doing her best work late. I'll be checking her out in Betfair's place market but the majority of my bet will be on Wilander to win.

Either way it looks set to be a big day for Darley and the Exceed and Excel progeny which dominate the top of the betting.