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ROUND 6 AFL BETTING REVIEW
The three undefeated teams carried on their run in round six, but two of them - Geelong and Hawthorn - had to do it the hard way. Also, in unprecedented circumstances wreaking havoc in AFL betting markets, a draw was recorded for the second successive round, this week between North Melbourne and Sydney.
Collingwood 23.16.154 d Essendon 12.9.81
Despite the evenness in competition between the two clubs in previous Anzac day stoushes, Collingwood backers were supremely confident in the lead-up, seeing the Magpies trade around the $1.50 mark throughout pre-match betting. Essendon, conversely, were unwanted, matched at a low of $2.56 before bounce-down. The Bombers did not trade at odds any lower than this in-play, as the 'Pies hit the ground running and were never headed.
After some hit-and-miss form in recent weeks, Collingwood have firmed from $23 to $16 in AFL Premiership betting following their Anzac triumph; Essendon, on the other hand, have now drifted to a best price of $9.20 simply to make the finals.
Geelong 13.11.89 d Fremantle 13.10.88
Premiership shorties Geelong received the fright of their lives - or at least for 2008 - by the Dockers in the second Anzac Day match of the year. Fremantle defied their pre-game odds, which reached a high of $9, to take a 40 point lead mid-match and shock the Cats into action. The visitors responded to win by the barest of margins, landing some nice in-play bets (prices as high as $4) along the way.
Geelong is now deemed an unbelievable $2.34 chance to make it back-to-back flags by Betfair punters, and a staggering $10 to go through the season undefeated. Freo's situation couldn't be further from this, last matched at $70 with one win on the board after trading at $12 in early season betting.
Western Bulldogs 20.14.134 d West Coast 11.8.74
The $1.28 about the Bulldogs before play in this match seemed pretty skinny value to the naked eye, but in hindsight it wasn't: the hard-running Dogs proving way too strong for the hapless Eagles. The Bullies are still one of only three teams to remain undefeated and have been backed from $60 to $20 in premiership betting, while West Coast are travelling as poorly as their Western Australian counterpart, on one win, and popular with layers (and not so much backers!) in most season-long markets.
Adelaide 16.15.111 d Carlton 11.15.81
Had Carlton not captured some somewhat surprising good recent form, once suspects they may have started significantly longer than the $2.29 traded on them to beat Adelaide, who were matched at an average price of $1.76 amongst Betfair punters. The Crows - who actually matched high odds of $2.20 in-play after a flurry of early Carlton goals - went on to win comfortably, leaving backers taking the nice odds on their victory with smiles on their faces.
Port Adelaide 12.10.82 d St Kilda 9.7.61
As typically low scorers throughout the early part of the season, this affair at Football Park promised to be a tight encounter - and so it was. Port flew the gates and looked the goods early in the piece, and the Saints seldom really threatened in an affair that stagnated, and then stagnated further. In the betting however, Port backers were happy to pile in and continue to do so. More than 95% of in-play money was traded on the Power, who look to have their season back on track, and have been backed accordingly in the '08 AFL Premiership market: $85 into $29.
Brisbane 19.23.137 d Melbourne 13.7.85
Melbourne are so bad it's almost painful to talk about them. Brisbane were backed into tens-on in head-to-head pre-match odds; the Dees out to tens. Punters would do no better in-play, as the Lions surged forth and the match fizzed out. Melbourne are now $1.37 to finish last, and that is overs.
Hawthorn 14.22.106 d Richmond 15.4.94
After putting together some solid performances in recent weeks, Richmond were entering territory they had probably yet to charter in '08 versus the Hawks. It wasn't as lopsided as the $1.27-to-$4.70 lead-up odds suggested however, the Hawks running out eventual two goal victors after a second-half arm wrestle. The Hawks, the principal logical danger to Geelong's flag procession in 2008, have now reached AFL premiership odds of $5.80, which will only tighten further as their unbeaten run continues.
Kangaroos 9.10.64 drew Sydney 8.16.64
In a bizarre replica of the Sunday afternoon match at Telstra Dome but a week earlier, the Kangaroos and Sydney played out an AFL punters' nightmare on Sunday: the dreaded draw. With either team striving to go a game clear of its competitor on the ladder prior to the match, the status quo remains thereafter. The Swans are now equal-third Premiership pick with punters at $16, whilst North are surprisingly friendless in flag betting despite stringing some good form together, last matched at $50 to be premiers.
Click here for Betfair's 2008 AFL Premiership market.
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