AFL / Nick Tedeschi / 25 July 2008 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external">Bet Now

Geelong still rule the AFL world and they aren't ready to be dethroned just yet, writes Nick Tedeschi.

Geelong remain the benchmark in the AFL and despite claims that Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs are closing the gap, the space between one and two in the AFL is substantial and will be highlighted on Friday evening when the Cats run rampant over the highly rated Hawks.

One need only look at Geelong's systematic dismantling of the 13-1-1 Bulldogs last Saturday to grasp the red-hot form the Cats are in.

The Cats have been simply sensational this season, taking the work of 2007 to the next level this year. Aside from one trip-up against Collingwood, Geelong have not lost a contest.

Aside from a nine point win over Port Adelaide in round one and a one point victory over Fremantle in round six, no team has come close to stopping the juggernaut. Since that Collingwood loss, Geelong have reacted well, averaging a score of 132-65.

Over that same seven week period, the Hawks have stumbled, going 4-3 with an average score of 97-89. After bursting from the blocks with nine straight wins, Hawthorn have stumbled badly, losing games to the Bulldogs, North Melbourne and St. Kilda. The Saints loss, last round, was particularly cruel for the Hawks as they blew a five-goal lead against a significantly inferior team.

Of most concern to Hawthorn is their diminishing capacity to score points. In the first eight rounds, the Hawks cracked 100 on every occasion. Over the last seven weeks, they have failed to crack 90 on four occasions.

A combination of inaccuracy from star forwards Buddy Franklin (56.6% season, 54.9% last seven weeks) and Jarryd Roughead (59.1%, 60%) and tighter opposition defense has blunted the Hawks sharpest weapon.

Expect little to change on Friday with Mackie, Scarlett and Harley likely to shutdown a forward line that most probably will not receive the disposal they have become accustomed too. Geelong have the best defense in the AFL with a backline that can shutdown the best forward line and a midfield that works hard and ensures little ball gets into their back fifty.

The Hawks defense is not nearly as effective in shutting down scoring options and that is a real concern when you consider the wide array of potential Geelong goalkickers. Croad will most likely tag Cam Mooney but the likes of Guerra and Birchall play loose and this is dangerous against the likes of Johnson, Varcoe, Lonegan and Chapman.

All signs point to a big Geelong victory. This is a statement game and the Cats always lift for these contests. Geelong can be bet heavily in the match odds market as well as -16 ½ in the handicap market. The Geelong half-time/full-time double is also plenty of value.